Patterns, and what they can't tell you

Discoveries are bunching up

The gap between the first two discoveries was 19 days. The last two gaps were 0 and 2 days. Over 64 days, 9 bodies have been found, an average of one every 8 days, but almost all of them in the last week.

Caveat: A 'found' date is not a death date. The 10 September body was badly decomposed, so that woman likely died weeks earlier. Part of the bunching is simply that searches intensified once police went public on 12 September.

Five geographic groups, not one

3 of the 9 discoveries sit within about 3 km of Rhodesfield, next to OR Tambo airport. 5 of 9 are within 2.5 km of the R21. Grouping sites that lie within 5 km of each other gives five groups: Rhodesfield (3), Clayville / Olifantsfontein (3), Pomona (1), KwaThema (1), Dawn Park (1). Everything except KwaThema sits on or beside the R21 corridor between OR Tambo airport and Olifantsfontein; KwaThema is on a different road network, about 25 km south-east.

Caveat: Pins are approximate, most reports say only 'near the R21' or 'in Rhodesfield'. Police have not said which deaths, if any, are connected, and the acting Police Minister has called them 'quite distinct, separate events' for now.

Who the victims are

All are women. Known ages: 37, 32, 28, 38, 38 (4 unknown). Reporting describes them as Black women in their thirties. 7 publicly confirmed as identified, 1 confirmed unidentified, 1 unclear. Only one, Elizabeth Moselakgomo, has a publicly known last-seen point: she vanished during an evening run in Rhodesfield.

Caveat: SAPS releases very little victim detail, for good reasons. Unidentified victims are the biggest gap in the public record, and one where the public can legitimately help (see Contribute).

How they were found

Every reported body was outdoors: on a roadside, in open veld or, for two of them, in a river. Those found on land were naked or partially clothed, with visible bruising. One (July) was restrained with cable ties; one (Pomona, 3 August) had multiple stab wounds, the only case in which police have described a weapon. Police described the Olifantsfontein roadside woman as possibly 'dumped', which implies she was killed elsewhere and moved; the Clayville river woman was found mostly without clothing.

Caveat: No formal cause of death has been released for any victim. The only indication is preliminary: the acting Gauteng commissioner said the KwaThema woman appeared to have been strangled, before the post-mortem. Everything else above is what a passer-by or a police spokesperson could see.

Against the South African baseline

The best public research on South African series (Horning, Salfati & Labuschagne, 2015: 302 incidents, 33 offenders) found 78% of scenes outdoors and 94% of bodies left where the victim was killed; nearly half of victims were lured, often with a job offer. The Kempton Park pattern matches the outdoor/undressed baseline strongly, but 'dumped' bodies and an abduction of a runner in the open would be departures from the typical con-approach series.

Caveat: The baseline is 1953–2007 and describes SOLVED series. It tells you what is usual, not what happened here.

The July arrest changes the arithmetic

An arrest was made for the first death two days after the body was found, and reporting describes the arrested person as the victim's partner. If that case stands on its own, the 'series' starts on 24 August, not 15 July, and the count is 8, not 9.

Caveat: This site does not name or discuss suspects. An arrest is not a conviction, and a domestic-looking case can still turn out to be connected.

Eight women in the police count as of the evening of 15 September: four in a tight cluster around Rhodesfield/R21, three about 20 km north on or beside the same highway (Olifantsfontein roadside; a river at Clayville, found 7 Sept and announced 15 Sept; a river at Olifantsfontein, confirmed on the evening of 15 Sept with no detail), and one 25 km south-east at KwaThema on a different road network. Police hold one person for the July case; SAPS says it is 'still not yet there' on whether one person or a group is responsible and has asked for patience. The first post-mortem finding is public: four of the five women found by 14 Sept had been sexually assaulted. The public record supports a consistent disposal pattern (outdoors, undressed, bruised, now with sexual assault, and now two bodies in water) and victim profile (women in their late 20s to 30s), but not a single-offender conclusion, and the police themselves are saying so.

What changed

• 15 Sep (evening): count rises to eight. Acting Police Minister Cachalia confirms an eighth body after the Parktown meeting; Lt-Gen Dimpane: recovered from a river in Olifantsfontein, nothing else said. Second body in water, second at Olifantsfontein.
• 15 Sep (afternoon): count rises to seven, a woman in her late 20s found in a river in Clayville on 7 Sept is added to the investigation (Kekana). Found before the public warning; the only body in water.
• 15 Sep: SAPS via Mosikili (IOL), four of the five women found by 14 Sept were sexually assaulted; one too decomposed to tell. First post-mortem finding on record.
• 15 Sep: three bodies unidentified; Gauteng Health appeals to families (Germiston FPS); 17 women reported missing in the area since January, 13 found; two mothers at the KwaThema scene.
• 15 Sep: Mathe, 'one suspect or a group of men' still open; pressure 'might arrest the wrong people'. Ramaphosa, Cachalia and Mayor Xhakaza all intervene; joint SAPS/EMPD patrols; lighting and vegetation audit.
• 14 Sep (reported): SAPS spokesperson, 'nothing tells us that we've got a serial killer'; focus on whether the three later deaths are linked; a more-than-one-killer theory from sources; Pistorius: signature/DNA/pathology decide. Said before #5 and #6 were found.
• 15 Sep: sixth discovery (KwaThema), first site off the R21 corridor; police silent on linkage.
• 15 Sep: Deputy National Commissioner's 72-hour activation and public promise to the perpetrator(s).
• 14 Sep: identification of victim #4; police used the word 'dumped' for #5 (implies transport).

Discrepancies between sources

• Date #4 found: 12 Sep (SAPS/Citizen/Witness/Daily Maverick) vs 13 Sep (IOL recap).
• Hotel named at #4: Protea (Witness) vs Southern Sun OR Tambo (Daily Maverick), same block, York Road.
• BNO News conflated #5 with Ms Moselakgomo, treated as error.
• Count: media 'six'; SAPS has addressed four, then #5 and #6 separately.
• KwaThema body: eNCA 'believed dumped that morning' vs eNCA/EWN 'advanced state of decomposition'.
• Women reported missing since January: 13 found (IOL, EWN) vs 14 (social media). Site uses the published 13.
• Where #7 was found: a Citizen/LNN headline says Tembisa; TimesLIVE and eNCA say a river in Clayville, eNCA adding 'near the Mall of Tembisa'. Same place; site uses Clayville.

Open questions

• When was the Olifantsfontein river body (#8) found, and is it linked? Nothing public beyond one sentence.
• Which four of the five were sexually assaulted, and does the finding cover #1 (July, arrest made)?
• Why was the Clayville body (7 Sept) not in the public count until 15 Sept, and is it being treated as linked?
• Are #2, #3 and #4 linked to each other? That is now the police's stated question. #5 and #6 were found after that statement, where do they fall?
• Is #1 (July, arrest made) part of the series at all? If not, the series begins 24 Aug.
• Is #6 (KwaThema) connected? Different area and road network.
• When did #3 die? Advanced decomposition means the discovery order is not the death order.
• Cause of death for any victim, nothing public.
• Identities of #3 and #5, any official missing-person notices for Ekurhuleni women since June?

Against the South African baseline

Horning, Salfati & Labuschagne (2015): South African series are typically outdoor (78%), victims left where killed (94%), strangers (73%), often lured with a job offer (47% con approach). Kempton Park matches the outdoor/undressed norm; transported bodies and an outdoor abduction of a runner would be departures, but nothing here is confirmed by police.

What this is not: Not a profile of an offender, not a prediction of where one lives, not a list of suspects. A reading of published facts, reviewed by the site owner before publishing.

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